IN & NC Primary Thread

1:10AM - With 99% of precincts reporting, FOX, NBC and CNN call Indiana for Clinton. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

12:59AM - Here is video of Clinton's speech.

12:42AM - With 95% of precincts reporting, Clinton still leads 51%-49%, with less than 17,000 votes separating the two candidates. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

12:25AM - FNC reports that 6,000 absentee ballots in Lake County will not be counted tonight, meaning it will most likely be "tomorrow" before we know who's won. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

11:49PM - Obama's apparent 14-point win in N.C. continues his run of big wins in the Deep South and Tidewater states. Obama's winning margins in the following states: Louisiana, +22%; Mississippi, +25%; Alabama, +14%; Georgia, +35%; South Carolina, +29%; North Carolina, +14%; Virginia, +28%; D.C. +52%; Maryland, +25%; Delaware, +11%. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

11:46PM - It's now a 2-point game (less than 20,000 votes separate Clinton and Obama), with 9% of precincts left to report. Could this be any more suspenseful? - KYLE TRYGSTAD

11:30PM - The question of when Lake County's votes will come in still looms. It's been reported that the county should report by midnight. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

10:54PM - Clinton, answering the question many people were wondering about: "Now it's on to West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and all the other states..." - KYLE TRYGSTAD

10:40PM - Clinton, in opening of her speech: "Well, tonight, we've come from behind, broken the tie, and now it's on to the White House. ... I need your help to continue our journey. ... We can only keep winning if we keep competing." Clinton then asks supporters to go to her website and contribute. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

10:38PM - Clinton is finally stepping to the podium to speak, with 15% of precincts still to report, including all of Lake County. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

10:35PM - Obama is up roughly 180,000 votes in North Carolina and down about 40,000 in Indiana, though it appears he'll close the gap in Indiana when the votes in Lake County come in. Overall, then, if his margin holds in North Carolina, Obama will wipe out 80% of the popular vote gain Clinton received from Pennsylvania two weeks ago. - TOM BEVAN

10:23PM - Here is video of Obama's victory speech in Raleigh, N.C..

10:15PM - Still waiting for Clinton to speak. Perhaps she's waiting for a definitive answer on Indiana which, as Kyle just noted in his last post, could very well be slipping away as the final votes come in. Obviously, losing both states tonight would be significantly worse than a split decision, but after suffering a substantial defeat in North Carolina, a one to three point win in Indiana will be of little consolation to Clinton. - TOM BEVAN

10:00PM - FNC's Barone said it would be possible for Obama to pull out a win with a 60%-40% win in Gary's Lake County, which has yet to report its votes. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:50PM - Clinton, though trailing in pledged delegates, has been riding a wave of momentum coming off a strong win in Pennsylvania. But this long night -- a big loss in N.C. and close call in Indiana -- will clearly weaken her wave. Obama has been creeping up on Clinton in superdelegates, now trailing her by just 15 superdelegates. Clinton needed a quick call in Indiana. She now leads by just 4 points with 78% of precincts reporting, and a large number of votes still to come in. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:27PM - Clinton currently leads Indiana by 4 points, with 72% of precincts reporting. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:15PM - Obama, speaking in Raleigh, congratulates Clinton "on what appears to be a victory for her in Indiana." - KYLE TRYGSTAD

9:07PM - Still no calls for Clinton in Indiana, other than CBS News. Obama is doubling Clinton's vote in Indianapolis's Marion County. There are still two-thirds of the vote to come in Hamilton County to the north of Marion, only 9% are in in Indiana U.'s Monroe County, and still no votes in Lake County. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:48PM - Obama's strong win in N.C. is thanks in large part to the Research Triangle -- the Raleigh/Durham area. Obama currently has 64% in Raleigh's Wake County, 74% in Durham County, and 70% in Chapel Hill's Orange County. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:31PM - CBS News is calling Indiana for Clinton, but networks still say it's too early. Fox News's Michael Barone says the network still is not 99.6% sure, with Lake County -- the second largest county in the state -- still not reporting, and only 50% of the precincts in the state reporting. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:24PM - Some polls stayed open an hour late in the Northwest part of Indiana as precincts ran out of Democratic ballots. It's only effecting a few precincts, but expect Gary's Lake County to trickle in late, as Kyle wrote earlier. - REID WILSON

8:17PM - Monroe County, with Bloomington and its Indiana University, is another county that has yet to report many votes. Like Lake County, it's crucial to Obama's chances. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:10PM - The reason it's still too early or close to call in Indiana is because we still have not seen returns from Evansville's Vanderburgh County in the southwest, Gary's Lake County in the northwest, and the populous Hamilton County in the northern suburbs of Indianapolis. Obama's numbers currently are not looking good in the Indy suburbs to the east and south. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

8:04PM - Down-ballot races to watch tonight: North Carolina Democrats are picking Senate and gubernatorial nominees tonight, and Tar Heel Republicans are choosing their own governor hopeful. State Senator Kay Hagan looks like the favorite to take on Republican incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole in November, while Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue is locked in a tight battle with Treasurer Richard Moore. On the GOP side, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is battling State Senator Fred Smith in hopes of taking back the governor's mansion for their party for the first time since 1993.

In Indiana, Democrats Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger are fighting over who gets to take on incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels. Polls show Thompson edging out Schellinger, but a large number of voters remain undecided. - REID WILSON


7:35PM - According to the exits, white Democrats (42% of the electorate today) went for Clinton 62 to 35 and white Independents (16% of electorate) 53 to 40. As expected, Obama cleaned up among black Democrats (31% of the electorate), beating Clinton by a 92 to 6 margin. - TOM BEVAN

7:30PM - All nets project Obama to win NC - TOM BEVAN

7:28PM - Fun fact (according to CNN exits): 26% of those who said Clinton was not honest or trustworthy still voted for her. It makes you wonder what they thought of Obama. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:12PM - Operation Chaos update: according to the exits, Republicans accounted for 11% of the vote in Indiana and they went for Clinton over Obama 53 to 45. - TOM BEVAN

7:11PM - According to the recent poll by Ann Selzer for the Indy Star, Obama can afford to lose the rural counties of Indiana by 2-to-1 margins, as long as he wins the urban and suburban counties by about 13 to 14 points. Such outcomes would likely bring Obama a 3-point victory, according to the poll. It's still too early to tell how each are performing, but as the votes start coming in a little faster now, the margins in the rural and suburban counties will be quite telling. - KYLE TRYGSTAD

7:05PM - Exits from CNN. Of note: of the 46% of voters who said Rev. Wright was an important issue to them, 72% went for Clinton. Of the 51% who said it wasn't important, Obama won 67% to Clinton's 33%. - TOM BEVAN

7:00PM - FOX, CNN, and MSNBC say Indiana too close early to call. - TOM BEVAN

6:52PM - Will Clinton get her breakthrough tonight? Initial numbers don't look promising but, again, the final vote could be different than the exits we're seeing now. A split decision looks like the most likely outcome, and if that's the case then the margins will matter. A 10-point Clinton win in Indiana coupled with a 5-point loss in North Carolina can obviously be spun much differently than the opposite: a 5-point win in Indiana and a 10-point loss in North Carolina.

To the extent Clinton can survive tonight, she can extend the contest and keep alive questions about Obama's ability to appeal to working class white voters in the general election with what looks like a huge victory in waiting next Tuesday in West Virginia. As Jay wrote this morning, the sheer size of her victory there could be the surprise story, and with no other primaries and nothing else to talk about, the media will again recycle the storyline about Obama's inability to connect with culturally conservative downscale Democrats. - TOM BEVAN

6:30PM - More exit poll insanity here. - TOM BEVAN

6:28PM - Drudge blaring headline, 'Hillary's 'Double Dream Dashed: Exits Show Easy Obama Win in NC." But the initial exits have consistently shown Obama overperforming the final result. Best to wait until the votes get counted. - TOM BEVAN

6:25PM - Here are your early exits. - TOM BEVAN

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