Whither the Evangelical Vote?

The AP has a story today about the tepid response to John McCain from the nation's Evangelicals. Brush past the anecdotal evidence and reporter Mike Glover tells readers:

Nevertheless, they support McCain over Obama by 62 percent to 18 percent. Although the AP-Yahoo News Poll is of all adults, not the smaller, more energized group of likely voters, McCain's figures lag behind Bush's showing among white evangelical Christian voters in the 2004 election, when exit polls indicated 78 percent supported him.

Given McCain's history and political style, I would say that 62-18 is doing fairly well. What those numbers certainly don't forecast is any Evangelical exodus to Obama. Unlike, say, Reagan Democrats, Evangelicals aren't likely to cross sides. If anything, they just won't come out to vote.

Over at the Brody File, David Brody is seeing the same thing and has two suggestions for McCain:


In order for John McCain to increase his numbers, he's going to have to do two things. First, he's going to need a solid VP pick that will energize the base. This is crucial. If it doesn't go down well with the Evangelical grassroots, expect a backlash and any goodwill that's been attained so far will vanish. Secondly, speeches and "straight talk" on life, marriage and faith will get Evangelicals excited and motivated. Cutting back on pork barrel spending ain't gonna do it.

But this raises another problem for McCain. Does he need someone with impeccable economic credentials or someone who can energize the Evangelical base that was crucial to Bush's victory? This problem is just one reason why the conventional wisdom on McCain's VP is swirling around Mitt Romney at the moment.

(Cross-posted at VP Watch.)

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