January 27, 2007 7:39
Report from Iowa: The Republicans
This post is for the political horserace fans out there in Swampland. Everyone else may want to move on to the next post:
After a day following Mitt Romney through Waterloo and Dubuque (and getting a really interesting tour of an ethanol plant--wish I could have brought my 10-year-old son), I'm beginning to wonder whether this first caucus is going to turn out to be something of a challenge for John McCain. The Arizona Senator has lined up a lot of the top political talent in the state, which matters a lot. But the crowds who turned up to take a look at Romney were surprisingly large and enthusiastic for this early point, several hundred at both of his public appearances.
Immigration dominated the questions Romney got in Waterloo, suggesting the issue--one on which McCain is at odds with the Republican base--still has a lot of resonance. And I didn't hear a single question about Iraq, except from reporters. When I went around and talked to people--randomly, and an unscientific sampling, to be sure--I heard a lot of resentment toward the putative frontrunner from the kind of very conservative Republicans who tend to dominate their caucuses. There is some lingering resentment over the fact that McCain ignored this state in 2000, a fair amount of carping about McCain-Feingold (the awareness and resentment being another surprise to me), but mostly, a complaint that they didn't feel McCain was reliably one of them. This is the impression that McCain is going to be fighting hardest to change over the next year, but you've got to wonder how much doing what it does to win the primary battle will cost him in a general election race. Here, by the way, is something I wrote on that score for the magazine last December.
As for Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor is still very much in the getting-to-know-you phase with primary voters--telling them a lot about his biography and talking vague, optimistic themes. Things will surely get tougher when McCain's folks start pointing out Romney's (pick one) changes of heart/Massachusetts flip-flops on, for instance, abortion. But for now, Romney's approach seems to be working. I was particularly amused by a group of startstruck Young Republicans from the University of Iowa, who were squealing like they were at a rock concert. When I asked one of them what they liked about this guy, he said: "He reminds me of Reagan--he really does!" So I couldn't resist asking this young man when he was born: 1986.
Today: Hillary does Des Moines. Lots of hype. My buddy Roger Simon has a funny take.
About Swampland
Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more
Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. Read more
Karen Tumulty is TIME's National Political Correspondent and has also covered the White House and Congress. Read more
Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses as well as Congress. Read more
Jay Newton-Small has covered the Bush 43 White House and Congress since the DeLay era. Read more
Michael Scherer is a TIME Washington bureau correspondent covering the 2008 presidential campaign. Read more
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Reader Comments (39)
Horse racing and self-flagellation in one lead. Going Muslim, Karen? If you want to hear a really funny story about Iowa, look up Marty Heldt and ask him who lost Dan Rather?
Posted by Tim Finnegan | January 27, 2007 10:58 AM
I found Simon's piece perfectly opaque.
Posted by Anonymous | January 27, 2007 11:00 AM
REJECTED NAMES FOR NEXT CHENEY GRANDBABY (subject to change)...
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Posted by QUESTION HILLARY | January 27, 2007 11:15 AM
You say:
"After staking his reputation on the moral high ground by speaking truth to power on issues ranging from deficits to torture, McCain is uniquely vulnerable to anything that hints of hypocrisy--even on questions that ordinary politicians would get a pass on."
As your colleague Andrew Sullivan has noted, McCain caved to the Bush Administration on his Torture Amendment. "The McCain Amendment, we find out, as if we didn't already know, was irrelevant. We thought we still lived in a constitutional democracy where the Congress regulates the rules of war, as specified in the Constitution itself. No longer. Bush's signing statement on the McCain Amendment was the first signal."
http://time.blogs.com/daily_dish/2006/06/we_torture.html
And, ya know, McCain has voted yea on bills that increase the deficit at every opportunity. Every opportunity. The war. The tax cuts. The earmarks.
Just this week, he voted to abolish, ABOLISH, the minimum wage law. But you will never mention that little fact, will you?
So, tell me, Karen, where do you get this fantasy that McCain somehow has the "moral high ground" by "speaking truth to power"?
Bob Geiger says: "As McCain himself is quoted as saying in Ignatius's column, "It's awfully hard to say no to the president of the United States.""
http://bobgeiger.blogspot.com/2006/05/myth-of-mccain-as-political-maverick.html
So Karen, you see how little value your early coverage of the pre-primaries are, if you already have your script written. And I can see that your McCain as stright-talking maverick script is as yet unchallenged.
Posted by James, Los Angeles | January 27, 2007 11:42 AM
MCCAVE---only the real pundits don't know that
Posted by linda | January 27, 2007 12:30 PM
Karen - James' comment is excellent. Very few people still consider McCain as anything more than a typical politician. But he works very hard to script himself as a maverick and it is a lie.
When he was campaigning for Bush after Rove slimed him so terribly in South Carolina, you could see the displeasure in his face. Principle? Try this narrative: McCain has jettisoned his attempts at independence in the hopes of inheriting the Bush/Rove Campaign Machine for 2008.
We are all so busy thinking that Hillary will sacrifice any principle to get elected that we fail to apply the same standard to McCain.
Posted by Terrapin | January 27, 2007 12:33 PM
Amazing to me that immigration is big in Iowa.
Does anyone else suspect McCains war stance might be a big rope-a-dope? He's stalwart for giving the surge a chance and supporting the president. But 6 to 9 months from now, when the surge doesn't work, he'll be the only candidate in a position to say: "Well, we've tried everything. Now follow me and let's cut off funding."
It's an explainable position, narrowing the flip-flop charge. He'll get credit from Bush-hawks for having been patient. And he may reunite with all the independants and even liberals who embraced him -- what -- five years ago?
Posted by Bram Reichbaum | January 27, 2007 12:34 PM
No big shock to me that immigration is high in Iowa. Any state with a lot of farming right now is faced with migrant worker issues.
This year, I think it will explode. Alot of migrant workers in California are going to be looking elsewhere for jobs. The battering of the citrus crop by the freak storm means there aren't going to be oranges to pick.
Migrant workers will continue heading elsewhere now, including places like Iowa especially this year which will be awful for agriculture in California.
Posted by trifecta | January 27, 2007 12:57 PM
Iowa meatpacking--long history.
Vilsack's weakness in Iowa: Immigration will revitalize small towns in Iowa.
He's good on other issues, but I doubt this tune is on the top 10.
Posted by linda | January 27, 2007 2:02 PM
Hillary is unloved by the base, but they might warm to her.
McCain is actively disliked by the base-- and by moderates.
http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/john-mccains-support-collapsing-in-new-hampshire/
“John McCain is tanking,” says ARG president Dick Bennett. “That’s the big thing [we’re finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number’s way down, to 29 percent now.”
"Hillary does Des Moines." Ha ha! You have some Cox in you, Tumulty.
Posted by Elvis Elvisberg | January 27, 2007 2:11 PM
Karen, thanks for this interesting post. A few comments/suggestions:
* What everyone above said about McCain, but adding that I still don't see how he gets a pass for now advocating sending an insufficient number of troops into harm's way.
* The next time you run into those 'startstruck Young Republicans' you might want ask them about Iraq and if/when they intend to enlist.
* My sense of the GOP race is that McCain is the guy voters are unexcitedly willing to take home only after conclude there isn't a better date (and that Gingrich thinks he can swing in late as the last 'date' when the others have been found wanting). Not exactly a position of strength for a front runner.
* "Hillary does Des Moines. Lots of hype." Please, God, I hope this doesn't presage another round of "spectacle" reporting. She's not there for your entertainment; the reporting goal is not to see who can come up with the best wisecrack. Feel free to pass this advice on to you reporting colleagues.
* If you have the time I recommend this column by Jamison Foser. It provides some insight on the origins of why mainstream reporter encounter such hostility online.
http://mediamatters.org/items/200701270002
* Finally, I know you're "at work," but have fun out there. Remember, there are a bunch of people who would be thrilled to have the all expenses paid, high salaried ability to be where you are right now.
Posted by Steve in Sacto | January 27, 2007 3:41 PM
Karen, thanks for the update.
Posted by Terry Mitchell | January 27, 2007 4:10 PM
Any ISU extension folks out there. Iowa Ag crops are mechanical intensive, other than seed corn-detasseling and cottage industry farmers markets. Amish have always provided their own labor pool. Comments from some experts, please.
Posted by linda | January 27, 2007 4:11 PM
"After staking his reputation on the moral high ground by speaking truth to power on issues ranging from deficits to torture, McCain is uniquely vulnerable to anything that hints of hypocrisy--even on questions that ordinary politicians would get a pass on."
Or, more accurately, "after labelling himself as a 'straight talker' and having that label go largely unchallenged in the press, McCain is uniquely vulnerable to anything that hints of hypocrisy--even on questions that ordinary politicians would get a pass on."
What James said.
Posted by Greg VA | January 27, 2007 4:24 PM
I encourage all Swampland readers to carefully read Steve in Sacto's link. Read it in full. I encourage Ana Marie Cox and Jay Carney to read it as well. And Karen Tumulty and Joe Klein, too, of course.
But it appears that we have, right here on Swampland, a recipient of InsightMag's output, just quivering with delight at the chance to smear the leading Democrats in the race, in the manner of the Clinton's "selling off burial plots at Arlington" and "Gore living in a vast, swank Hotel Fairfax." Oh, yes, Cox couldn't wait to distribute that wholly debunked Clinton-Obama smear, could she?
Posted by James, Los Angeles | January 27, 2007 4:35 PM
Karen Tumulty,
"Things will surely get tougher when McCain's folks start pointing out Romney's (pick one) changes of heart/Massachusetts flip-flops on, for instance, abortion."
Really?
What about McCain's flip flops? He has flip flopped on everything from abortion to gay marriage to tax policy.
When will the DC journalists who have been acting like McCain groupies start holding him accountable? When will they start calling his flip-flops flip flops?
Romney changing his mind is a flip flop. St John McCain changing his mind is yet more evidence of his principled straight talking character.
The DC journalists hypocricy is sickening. If a politician they like flip flops they say it shows he is a smart politician, he is evolving (McCain). If a politician they don't like changes his mind they say he is unprincipled, a flip flopper (Kerry, Romney).
Posted by DonB | January 27, 2007 5:23 PM
"I heard a lot of resentment toward the putative frontrunner from the kind of very conservative Republicans who tend to dominate their caucuses. There is ... mostly, a complaint that they didn't feel McCain was reliably one of them."
Saint McCain's done nothing but get down on his knees and kiss their right-wing asses for the past year or two, and this is the thanks he gets?
Posted by nemo | January 27, 2007 5:35 PM
Terrapin,
"We are all so busy thinking that Hillary will sacrifice any principle to get elected that we fail to apply the same standard to McCain."
Karen Tumulty and friends have their script ready for the 2008 election.
* Hillary Clinton is a power hungry bitch who will do anything to win.
* John McCain is the straight talking maverick. He doesn't pander. He doesn't flip flop. If she changes his position 180 it is because he is a smart politician. It is a sign of maturity.
These people have their narrative ready. They are not going to let facts get in the way.
They had a similar script in 2000. Al Gore was a pathological liar who didn't know who he was and would do anything to win. George W Bush was the straight talking Texan you wanted to have a beer with.
Posted by DonB | January 27, 2007 5:44 PM
The problem seen by many who have turned from MSM is that a pack mentality exists among reporters. Please explain why McCain is a straight-shooter despite compromises with Falwell, Bush on torture and Dobson (he hopes). Aren't those positions political? The MSM media casts Hillary as someone who will take positions that benefit her politically. Do you not see the double-standard?
In your daily life, do you not change opinions as more facts come in? Are you a flip-flopper? Isn't part of GW's problem that he does not change position dispite having new facts presented to him? Would GW be called a flip-flopper if he had actually changed course after reading reports from The Iraq study group findings, senior military staff and other sources that a "surge" won't work?
Is his current "straight-shooter" position better than a President HRC or Romney or anyone else who might take in the new facts and make changes to strategy?
Why is one candidate a flip-flopper or "too political" and the other a straight-shooter?
Why do people believe Gore said he created the internet? Why do people believe Gore grew up in a penthouse? What is the responsibility of the MSM is perpetuating these falsehoods or perceptions?
Please less spin and just the facts, M'aam.
Posted by rmrd0000 | January 27, 2007 6:09 PM
"Why is one candidate a flip-flopper or "too political" and the other a straight-shooter?"
Sometimes I think DC journalists hold secret meetings in an undisclosed location and come to an agreement about a narrative for each politician. Once an agreement is reached and a narrative is established they all stick to it no matter what the facts or later events.
In their reporting they underplay facts that challenge the Official Washington Narrative and overplay ones that support it.
Posted by DonB | January 27, 2007 7:36 PM
Well, that's sticky one, DonB. They don't call what they write "units of information," they call them "stories." Humans find it hard to absorb information if its not in story form.
And it's hard to come up with a good story. Wicked hard. So when there's a good one out there, one that organizes reality in some minimally sensible way, dang skippy they're gonna opt to write the next graph or two. Way I figure it, an excellent reporter can manage to actually end a bad story and start a new, compelling one what -- once a year?
Posted by Bram | January 27, 2007 11:06 PM
The thing I like most about you piece is that you discovered Romney is a credible candidate to win the nomination. I just recently had the same realization when I skimmed through some of the movies on Romney's site that give you a better idea of who he is. As far as the flip-flopping concern, it was just a "flip." Romney used the be more moderate and now he is more conservative, and it appears he has no intention on going back on his values. Check this movie out from Romney's site that I found very well-done and got me thinking that I found a new pick for president!!!!
http://mittromney.permissiontv.com/?showid=32992
Posted by Tyson | January 28, 2007 2:19 AM
Karen Tumulty: "There is ... a fair amount of carping about McCain-Feingold (the awareness and resentment being another surprise to me)...." The "awareness and resentment being another surprise to [Ms. Tumulty]"? Hahahahahahaha. No doubt, Ms. Tumulty doesn't know a single person who wasn't orgasmic over the McCain-Feingold Political Speech Restriction Act. Exhibit No. 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,001 demonstrating that the Washington press corps is a bunch of like-minded leftist dupes. The New York Times would love to have Ms. Tumulty write its "conservative" beat.
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