April 18, 2007 2:07
Kurdish Ways
Matt Yglesias usually has a lot of smart things to say about foreign policy, but his takedown of David Ignatius's column on the Kurds isn't as acute as usual. It isn't even accurate. Matt claims that Ignatius doesn't mention the looming crisis in Kirkuk, but he does:
A flash point is Kirkuk, an oil-rich city claimed by the Kurds, which the Turks regard as a special protectorate because of its large Turkmen population. The new Iraqi constitution calls for a referendum by December on the city's future, and the Kurds are confident they will win the vote. The Turks, fearing the same outcome, want the referendum delayed. The Bush administration seems to favor a delay but hasn't said so publicly, to avoid angering the Kurds and undermining the constitution.
For the record, what makes the Ignatius column worthy is his compilation of recent sabre-rattling from both the Kurds and Turks--Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani warned that if the Turks meddled in Kirkuk, "then we will take action for the 30 million Kurds in Turkey."--and the possibility that Turkey will invade by the end of April. Also newsworthy is the account of Kurdish-Iranian tensions:
Kurdish sources report that the Iranians have recently shelled Kurdish targets inside Iraq and that Iranian-backed Islamic groups have attacked border posts in northern Iraq. The Iranians want to destabilize Kurdistan, partly to damage America's wider policy aims in Iraq, Kurdish officials argue.
Final point, for more than six months Richard Holbrooke and others have been suggesting that we place a blocking force on the Turkish-Kurdish border to dissuade an invasion by the Turks and incursions by the Kurdish guerrilla group, PKK. If the scenario favored by Baker-Hamilton and the wise core of bipartisan Senators had been enacted, those troops would be sitting peacefully on the Turkish border right now, instead of taking fire in Baghdad.
Matt also links to Scott McLeod's post about Kurdistan on Time's mideast blog. Good call.
About Swampland
Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more
Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. Read more
Karen Tumulty is TIME's National Political Correspondent and has also covered the White House and Congress. Read more
Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses as well as Congress. Read more
Jay Newton-Small has covered the Bush 43 White House and Congress since the DeLay era. Read more
Michael Scherer is a TIME Washington bureau correspondent covering the 2008 presidential campaign. Read more
Mike Murphy is a GOP consultant and was a senior strategist for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. Read more
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Reader Comments (19)
"If the scenario favored by Baker-Hamilton and the wise core of bipartisan Senators had been enacted, those troops would be sitting peacefully on the Turkish border right now, instead of taking fire in Baghdad."
This is an important point. Though I hate to describe anyone in Washington as "wise" at this point.
Posted by TomT | April 18, 2007 2:41 PM
A look at the ME map is helpful. Kurds are to be found in Turkey, Iraq and Iran. But for the articial creation of Iraq we may have has a Kurdistan by now. They would occupy portions of Turkey, Iraq and Iran, with some oil and a problem of access to the sea. That nationalism has been on the boil for at least five generations.
Turkey has a lot to answer for in the way they treat Kurds (one major obstacle to their entry into the European Community.) Turkey, too, is an artificial construct.
What the hell have Bush-Cheney started?
Posted by Alan | April 18, 2007 3:09 PM
A particularly astute commentator on another blog noticed the following:
"Question: With or without an invasion of Iraq in 2003, wasn't it inevitable that at some point the region would have to reconcile itself to the Kurds' aspirations? Kurds have long since been the largest geographically contiguous national group without a state, and since the end of the first Gulf War, they have demonstrated high levels of military, economic, and political organization. Their proto-state in the Kurdish north is better-run, more peaceful, and more prosperous than dozens of current UN-member states.
Since enlightened folks now speak of re-drawing the borders of Iraq in order to separate ethnic/sectarian groups, why stop there? And since the same enlightened folks advocate regional diplomacy as the preferred tack in stabilizing the region, why shouldn't the Kurds' concerns be part of this dialog? After all, if it's reasonable to carve Iraq into Kurdish, Arab Sunni and Arab Shiite states, isn't it reasonable that the Kurdish areas of Turkey and Iran be merged with the Kurdish region of Iraq? If not, than isn't it at least reasonable for the world to demand that Iran and Turkey give the Kurds greater regional autonomy?
How anyone (e.g., King Abdullah) can claim that the plight of the Palestinians is crucial to stabilizing Iraq and the region and completely ignore the plight of the Kurds seems ludicrous."
Whether we want to admit it or not, that part of the world is in real trouble. And we've a John Wayne President sitting on a powder keg, lighting and smoking cigars saying "Just trust me." :-)
Posted by Houston | April 18, 2007 3:09 PM
I think that you are misunderstanding a not-very-well stated point by Matt.
Matt stated: "Ignatius doesn't even mention that the Kurds are trying to take over Kirkuk and Mosul and that there will probably be a new fighting front in Iraq once we get closer to the scheduled Kirkuk referendum date."
You responded: "It isn't even accurate. Matt claims that Ignatius doesn't mention the looming crisis in Kirkuk, but he does:..."
The crisis that Matt referred to is different than the clash that Ignatius refers to. What I believe that Matt was refering to is an impending conflict between the Kurds and their fellow Iraqi Sunni's and Shiites over control of Kirkuk and Mosul, not between the Kurds and Turkey.
Posted by squid696 | April 18, 2007 3:14 PM
Joe,
While I appreaciate that you've embraced the concept of interactivity, it's somewhat disappointing that you don't participate in the "comments" section of your blog. In particular, I was hoping you'd elaborate on your recent terse and stinging rebuke of Michael Moore. It seems that you've moved on. However, there are still many of us who'd like to know why you characterized Mr. Moore's recent trip to Cuba with 9/11 first-responders as "disgraceful."
Sorry to preempt the present topic, but I and many others found your short screed somewhat unsatisfying. Do you care to comment?
Posted by GlennZ | April 18, 2007 3:30 PM
squid 696: I agree. The Kurds have gone back to Kirkuk and Mosul to reclaim their homes and property taken over by Sunnis during the Saddam days. The Turkomen who sidled in during the years are also faced with this. Shades of Palestinian dreams to get back their homes in Israel. So much of this stuff is about displacement, expulsion, want my grandfather's property back: basic Middle East politics - ancestoral lands and homes.
The point to note: the Kurds are capable of good organisation - political and defence. So there is trouble ahead.
Posted by Alan | April 18, 2007 3:30 PM
Joe,
Squid's right. Matt and David aren't talking about the same thing.
David is talking about Kurdish nationalism, the PKK, and the dangers of a separate flair-up between Kurds and Turkey/Iran where significant numbers of Kurds reside and seek a Kurdistan State.
Matt is referring to is this:
"Ignatius doesn't even mention that the Kurds are trying to take over Kirkuk and Mosul and that there will probably be a new fighting front in Iraq once we get closer to the scheduled Kirkuk referendum date." And that's true.
Joe, you're pathetic. In fact, your symptomatic of why we are in this mess in the first place. Too much looking at the forest, without recognizing that it isn't just all one type of tree. There is no "my way or the highway" or you're "either for us or against us." It just doesn't work that way. Now, we've got to get the bees back in the hive.
Goodluck Joe.
Posted by Houston | April 18, 2007 3:31 PM
Good catch Joe.
The probable tipping of power inside Turkey coupled with the reemergence of the USSR that we learned to live with during the Cold War puts a heck of a negative stressor on NATO. How does this the effect NATOs continuing support with troops for the WOT in Afghanistan.
The failure to control borders in Iraq becomes increasing relevant daily. We've lost 'oil' and borders with the surge focus on Baghdad and a late in the day recognition of shipping lanes needing to be secured.
Going back to the ISG trying to push a pro-active foreign policy that has been negated by the surge, the gorilla in the room remains the 'broken' military. What actual chips do we really have left to support the claim of 'the one world power'?
The whole world is not in W's hands, but is there a wake up call from anybody besides Murtha-Rangel to ensure US influence by rebuilding the US Military at warp speed? Will we see this great nation lost as Levin, Gates and the rest fail to address real needs while backscratching and bowing to political-profiteering pressures?
Or the MSM playing rating games with the tragedy of MT, pop psychology, religion and the 'hot button' CW discussion let the US condition in the context of the world go ignored?
Oops, Reid-Pelosi are talking 'support the troops'. Get back to your seat and engage your seat belt.
Posted by linda | April 18, 2007 3:32 PM
Please note that when David Ignatius talks about "A New Threat In Iraq" and says "a major new threat is emerging in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq," it isn't true. Matthew Yglesias properly points out that the Kurdiish-Turkish conflict is not new at all. (This conflict has been significant for over 15 years, when the no-fly zone was established over northern Iraq, allowing the Kurds a greater degree of self-determination.)
An actual quote from Matthew Yglesias: "Ignatius doesn't even mention that the Kurds are trying to take over Kirkuk and Mosul." You can tell this is about the struggle between Iraq ethnic groups, as opposed to the David Ignatius column that makes no mention of Mosul at all.
Posted by Aaron | April 18, 2007 3:45 PM
"If the scenario favored by Baker-Hamilton and the wise core of bipartisan Senators had been enacted"
I believe the bipartisan Senators you're referring to are Democrats. Who was it that rejected Baker-Hamilton again? Oh yeh, Bush & the Republicans, minus Hagel, Collins, & Snowe.
From The Nation: "If the president is serious about the need for change in Iraq, he will find Democrats ready to work with him in a bipartisan fashion to find a way to end the war as quickly as possible," said Nancy Pelosi, the incoming speaker of the House, who added that the ISG report echoed virtually all of the Democrats' main talking points on Iraq.
Your "bipartisan" fetish has yet again led you to say something stupid.
Posted by Acid Jones | April 18, 2007 4:12 PM
> Final point, for more than six months Richard
> Holbrooke and others have been suggesting that we
> place a blocking force on the Turkish-Kurdish
> border to dissuade an invasion by the Turks and
> incursions by the Kurdish guerrilla group, PKK.
> If the scenario favored by Baker-Hamilton and the
> wise core of bipartisan Senators had been
> enacted, those troops would be sitting peacefully
> on the Turkish border right now
So when the Turks come across the Iraqi border in hot pursuit of groups they consider terrorists, these US "blocking" forces will do what exactly? Hand the fleeing Kurds over to the Turks? Attempt to "block" the Turkish forces? How? By firing on them? That is usually considered an act of war. So now Holbrooke and Baker are advocating a war with Turkey? Presumably on top of the war with Iran? But no draft, right? No chance Baker's grandchildren will see action in these wars?
Cranky
Posted by Cranky Observer | April 18, 2007 4:13 PM
Given this discussion, how do you feel the Pope's/Vatican history (from the Polish-USA/Polish-USSR) of international intrigue, the lecture at the U. of Retenberg raising Islamic ire, trip to Turkey to visit the 'other Pope', and the Bush-US MSM connection influences the politics of Turkey? Is this Pope's further erosion of Vatican II a significant factor of the return to the Cold War?
Aaron, the internal Iraqi struggle of the Kurds for Kirkuk-Monsul reflects the failure of the 'Iraqi government to deal with this issue' as had been agreed upon. I don't believe that the 'oil' settlement which is interwoven in the 'Iraqi Kurds-Kurdistan dilemna' has gone beyond the 'proposal stage' as it has much opposition. Benchmarks and time lines are strawmen because, I believe, they will never be met under the current Iraqi Constitutional Government.
Posted by linda | April 18, 2007 4:13 PM
This really seems like a modus operandi --- Joe assumes that someone smarter than him said something stupid, and merely displays his own ignorance.
Its cluetime Joe. Matt wrote "Ignatius doesn't even mention that the Kurds are trying to take over Kirkuk" and if you had a freaking clue, you'd know that "are trying to" refers to the ONGOING ETHNIC CLEANSING OF ARABS AND TURKMEN BY THE KURDS IN KIRKUK.
(google, "kirkuk, ethnic cleansing")
That is what Ignatius doesn't mention --- and its why the Kurds are so "confident" about the election. They are throwing out (or killing) the opposition.
SHEESH
Posted by paul_lukasiak | April 18, 2007 4:47 PM
Comments, Joe:
Adm. Fallon says US losing ground in Iraq everyday.
CNN Poll: Those who think US is losing in Iraq has grown to 69%
Levin-Gates say ????
Posted by linda | April 18, 2007 6:20 PM
Wake up Joe. Both you and Ignatius have said a whole lot of nothing. Much of the Northern Iraq mess was predicted in 2004-04 and Matt nailed Ignatius for trying to take credit for the obvious.
Posted by todd b. | April 19, 2007 7:42 AM
Joe, I made this comment a minute ago on your post from two days ago about Lawrence Kolb's visit to Iraq. Specifically, it's about your update of your post in response to questions from "Anonymous".I'm dropping it here as well to make sure you see it. I spent, I don't know, a whole ten minutes on it, so I might as well not have it get lost.
----------------------
Joe, that was a good try there in responding to a commenter, but learn from this:
a) those reasons you gave about the surge not working are okay and all, but
b) if you'd said, "sure, there's 152,000 troops there now, you're right about that, but, more to the point, three of five brigades scheduled to deploy for "the surge" have already arrived, so the "surge has definitely begun in one way or another, thus you are not correct" -
that would have also been correct - while being a more logical rebuttal. Something that is part of the source of some trouble you have here is moving from one topic to another without, at minimum, clearly explaining that you're doing it. This is sort of an example to that - anonymous reader says, "the surge hasn't really started yet", and instead of saying, "yes, it has started", or saying, "no, it hasn't started, but it's still not going to work - here's why -",
you sort of rush right over to some reasons why the surge probably won't work, without really putting point #1 to bed. In fact, I can see three different takes coming out of your post:
Take #1: "You're absolutely right". Here, you seem to imply that the surge hasn't really started, like the guy says? Or did you mean he was right about troop numbers, *only*? If so, you needed to specify.
Take #2: "The nature of deployments.." your first point. This seems to suggest that the surge has, in fact, started. In other words, that you disagree with him, whereas in your first sentence, it seemed like you were acknowledging that he was correct"
Take #3: Points 2 and 3, suggesting that the surge isn't going to work. Fine, but only after you've resolved the commenter's original point clearly, whether you're in favor, disagree, unsure, or whatever.
Seeming to move from one question to another without acknowledging it will get you in trouble.
Posted by glasnost | April 19, 2007 12:37 PM
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