Swampland - TIME.com

Yet More on that South Carolina Poll

Jonathan Martin takes that SC poll more seriously than I do, but his analysis is interesting even if the numbers may be suspect:

So McCain actually sinks to fifth, below Huckabee, among those immigration-obsessed South Carolinians. Worse, immigration is effectively the second-most important issue to likely GOP primary voters in the state (most Republicans view Iraq/terrorism/war on terror/security as feathers of the same bird). As even his most ardent supporters concede -- and Sen. Lindsey Graham did yesterday on "This Week" -- McCain is taking a hit in the state on immigration.

Incidentally, not helping the cause is President Bush, who, desperate for a second-term domestic legacy and genuinely passionate about the matter, has not and will not throw in the towel despite uphill sledding in the House. It's almost the worst of both worlds for McCain, because the issue remains on the front-burner, but is unlikely to get to a point (i.e. a bill signing) where he can frame it in a positive light (i.e. "solving the hard problems") and move on. So it sort of hangs in a damaging purgatory, not dead but also not resolved.

And McCain realizes this. His campaign realizes this. And he's said, repeatedly, that if getting the immigration bill through means losing the nomination, "it would be worth it." But, increasingly, it looks like he'll lose both. And the Republicans will lose the only major candidate with a real conservative record. I really don't get them sometimes.


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About Swampland

Ana Marie Cox

Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more

Joe Klein

Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. His weekly TIME column, "In the Arena," covers national and international affairs. In 2004 he won the National Headliner Award for best magazine column. Read more

Karen Tumulty

Senior Writer Karen Tumulty has been TIME's National Political Correspondent since 2001, and has also covered the White House and Congress for the magazine. A native of San Antonio, she is a graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and Harvard Business School, where her career choice has significantly lowered the average salary of her graduating class. But she gets lots of free magazines. Read more

Jay Carney

Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered both the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses, as well as Congress. Before coming to Washington, he spent three years reporting from TIME's Moscow bureau. In his next life, he would like to write for Sports Illustrated. Read more

Jay Newton-Small

Jay Newton-Small Jay Newton-Small covers politics for TIME. She has covered the Bush 43 White House and also Congress from the DeLay era to the present. And, yes, despite the misleading name SHE is a she. Read more

Michael Scherer

Michael Scherer is a correspondent in TIME's Washington bureau covering the 2008 presidential campaign. He has worked national assignments for Mother Jones magazine and Salon.com. Read more

Mike Murphy

Mike Murphy is a political consultant who helped elect more than a dozen GOP Senators and Governors including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney. In 2000, Murphy was a senior strategist for John McCain's presidential campaign. Read more

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