Swampland - TIME.com

Presidential Poll Numbers

I can't be the only person weirded out by the findings of the latest Gallup poll on "confidence" in the presidential field:

We all know who the front-runners are, right? I'm pretty sure they're Hillary Clinton and Rudy Guiliani. So explain to me why, when asked specifically about leadership skills, Americans say this:

* 55% have "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of confidence in Sen. John McCain "to do or to recommend the right thing for the war in Iraq;" 55% for former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 54% for Barack Obama, 51% for Sen. Hillary Clinton, and 50% for Sen. John Edwards.

* 69% have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in Giuliani "to do or to recommend the right thing for handling terrorism;" 66% for McCain, 55% for Clinton, 53% for Obama, and 48% for Edwards.

* 62% have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in Obama "to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy;" 61% for Clinton, 60% for Giuliani, 53% for MCain, 51% for Edwards.

McCain's numbers, I'm sure, have something to do with the independents that still like the tough old bird. (And they may go toward finally putting to rest the myth that his primary bid was done in by his support for the Iraq surge.) I have no idea why people think Rudy knows what to do there. Maybe impose martial law? Legalize Iraqi gay marriage? But the most stunning data set here are Obama's numbers on the economy. Wha? Beating "two Americas" Edwards by 10 points? He hasn't even, as far as I know, made the economy a central plank in his platform. He must just radiate "fairness." As well as, you know, second hand smoke.

(H/T: Pollster.com)


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About Swampland

Joe Klein

Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. His weekly TIME column, "In the Arena," covers national and international affairs. In 2004 he won the National Headliner Award for best magazine column. Read more

Karen Tumulty

Senior Writer Karen Tumulty has been TIME's National Political Correspondent since 2001, and has also covered the White House and Congress for the magazine. A native of San Antonio, she is a graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and Harvard Business School, where her career choice has significantly lowered the average salary of her graduating class. But she gets lots of free magazines. Read more

Jay Newton-Small

Jay Newton-Small Jay Newton-Small covers politics for TIME. She has covered the Bush 43 White House and also Congress from the DeLay era to the present. And, yes, despite the misleading name SHE is a she. Read more

Michael Scherer

Michael Scherer is a correspondent in TIME's Washington bureau covering the 2008 presidential campaign. He has worked national assignments for Mother Jones magazine and Salon.com. Read more

Amy Sullivan

Amy Sullivan is a senior editor at TIME magazine, and author of the book The Party Faithful: How and Why Democrats are Closing the God Gap (Scribner, 2008). A Michigan native, she holds degrees from the University of Michigan and Harvard Divinity School. She writes about religion and politics for TIME, but no longer answers to the name "Bible Girl." Read more

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