Swampland, TIME

Pollster.com's Disclosure Project

A worthy and particularly medium-appropriate blogger challenge from the folks at Pollster.com: The Disclosure Project.

Starting today we will begin to formally request answers to a limited but fundamental set of methodological questions for every public poll asking about the primary election released in, for now, a limited set of states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or for the nation as a whole. We are starting today with requests emailed to the Iowa pollsters and will work our way through the other early states and national polls over the next few weeks, expanding to other states as our time and resources allow.

The questions will probably seem unbearably wonky to many, but the reason for wanting the answers is important: They'll help reporters (and readers) better judge the accuracy and importance of these primary state polls. An example, that just happens to be a plug for Time: Our Iowa pollsscreen more aggressively for past caucus-goers than most, and Time's -- and ARG's -- transparency about its methods allowed Pollster to come up with a nifty bit of analysis: "John Edwards does better against Clinton as the percentage of past caucus goers increases." The number crunching is useful; the fun part comes in trying to figure out why that is.

UPDATE: My typing is more remedial than usual today. Grammar cleaned up.

| Sphere Related Blogs & Articles |

Reader Comments (9)

Sean:

Good post, this is necessary for nerds like me to actually give some credence to polls.

linda:

My guess based on my experience of attending IA Caucuses: Past Caucus Goers are more informed.

Mr. Mike:

Ana -
Fair Warning Alert: this is not directly about pollster, but I wanted to get some visibility for my point.

To wit: this is in no way whatsoever a defense of Iran's president, but at least he came and took uncensored questions from a foreign audience. Has Bush ever done that? His press conferences are exercises in MSM cowering; his public events have audiences that rigorously pre-screened. He will not face questions from ordinary Americans, never mind an audience of Iranian students (or any other nationality's, for that matter.)

Can't someone bring this point to a wider audience?

kbanginmotown:

"have a screen more aggressively"...? Could you please clarify, Ana?
Also, will pollster.com be talking to the campaigns themselves? They are also fond of trumping up their momentum while shading their methodologies. Thx.

space:

"John Edwards does better against Clinton as the percentage of past caucus goers increases."

It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. Past caucus-goers are presumably more informed about politics. And they are likely more invested in advancing progressive issues. Not "further left". Just more committed to their political beliefs.

Clinton supporters tend not to get beyond the most superficial of reasons for supporting her: E.g. "She's smart", "We get Bill Clinton as a package", or "Things were better in the '90s."

For people who actually have been paying attention, Clinton has remarkably little executive experience, she has lousy foreign policy judgment, and she is way to quick to "compromise".

In fact, I'm really surprised that Clinton's numbers haven't fallen more as the Democrats' frustrations with the current Congressional leadership mount. Of the leading candidates, Hillary most strongly stands for the type of pre-emptive capitulation tendencies for which Reid and Pelosi are being currently blamed .

linda:

I watched Pelosi take on the Weenie Wolf over SCHIP. WW of course relied on his interview with 'tuna and powdered milk' Leavitt to support the Pres. and the neocons.

Question 1: How will the avoidance of the Jena, LA controversy with the Black Caucus taking it to the Hill effect the meme of Obama [Ophra and Tyra aside] and Hil [Bill in LR, AR]?

Question 2: Anybody listening to Ahmadinejad at the UN? If one were on the fence and believed in the accuracy of speeches, Bush comes across as the Baboon Buffoon. He's framing Bush's Power Coalition as the destructor of the family and the degradation of women. Hits the 'greed factor' and use of 'weapons' framing it in the 'avoiding international law' that they wrote while increasing the arms race with ease. A big hit on national sovereignty and the failure of the 'powers' following WWII to go forward from Medieval thoughts creating hopelessness. Even uses the phrase "Fair and Sustainable Relations" while invoking God and morality, human values and ethics, love and affection. "Coalition for Peace"

Post a comment


About Swampland

Ana Marie Cox

Ana Marie Cox is the founding editor of Wonkette and the author of the novel Dog Days. Read more

Joe Klein

Joe Klein is TIME's political columnist and author of six books, most recently Politics Lost. Read more

Karen Tumulty

Karen Tumulty is TIME's National Political Correspondent and has also covered the White House and Congress. Read more

Jay Carney

Jay Carney is TIME's Washington bureau chief. He has covered the Clinton and Bush 43 White Houses as well as Congress. Read more

Jay Newton-Small

Jay Newton-Small has covered the Bush 43 White House and Congress since the DeLay era. Read more

Michael Scherer

Michael Scherer is a TIME Washington bureau correspondent covering the 2008 presidential campaign. Read more

Mike Murphy

Mike Murphy is a GOP consultant and was a senior strategist for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. Read more

 RSS Feed

AddThis Feed Button

Daily Email

Get Swampland in your inbox and never miss a day:
 
Delivered by   FeedBurner


CNN Politics

Get U.S. and global politics 24-7. Politics at CNN has campaign coverage, latest headlines and video, candidates' positions on the issues, fundraising totals, states to watch, delegate counts, election results, news and analysis
CNN Politics


The Page

Mark Halperin and the TIME political team covering the 2008 campaign bring you all the latest breaking news, videos, and best stories from every source, all in one place, expertly culled and edited, 24/7.
The Page


White House Photo Blog

Get an intimate look at the Bush administration and race for 2008 through the eyes of TIME's White House photographers.
White House Photo Blog


Ana Marie Cox on the trail

Keep up with Cox as she posts pictures and tidbits from the campaign trail.
Flickr
Twittr


advertisement

Swampland Archives

August 2008
Choose a day to view events.

<< Previous Months

          1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31